Spain V Croatia
The last time we had a situation like this, where Italy could be eliminated by a mutually beneficial draw between two other teams in their group, we saw the shortest ever odds from bookmakers for a 2-2 draw. And, duly, Denmark and Sweden produced exactly that result in 2004.
As Cesare Prandelli stated in the build-up to this game, however, there is one major reason why those odds aren’t as short this time: the world champions are playing.
Unlike Sweden and Denmark, Spain are – as ever – likely to completely dominate possession and control the match. There is a fear factor here for Croatia too. Although they tend to play the counter-attacking game that you simply must against the Spanish, that is principally because their defence is slow. Should a revitalised Fernando Torres start, and get a chance to run at that backline, then there are opportunities for goals here.
At the other end, though, Spain’s own loose defence will have to be wary of the aerial threat of Mario Mandzukic. Due to the lack of cohesion between Gerard Pique and Sergio Ramos, the Spanish have coughed up a fair amount of opportunities in the air for opposition teams and it’s only a matter of time until one team – particularly a team with a player who has scored three headed goals in this tournament so far – takes one.
Spain, though, should have more one. They are a team, after all, who generally change the terms of every match. Indeed, matches are usually played on their terms.
Prediction: Spain 2-1 Croatia
Italy V Ireland
On the face of it, you would expect Italy to at least do their job and get the win they need against Ireland. Cesare Prandelli’s team, after all, have drawn against both of the other two teams in this group. Ireland have been badly beaten twice. That would appear to indicate a massive chasm between the two sides.
But there are a few reasons why this won’t be so straightforward. For one, Trapattoni has not lost to Italy in three games as Ireland manager and has beaten Prandelli’s team in their only meeting, last June. Secondly, there is the different feel of the game.
If, as suggested by Trapattoni, that it was the tension and pressure of the situation that caused Ireland to commit the kind of errors that completely distorted their previously excellent defensive record, all of that anxiety is suddenly lifted. With the team out of the tournament and now resolved to play for their pride, it might have an odd galvanising effect on their application.
By contrast, the pressure is now all on an Italian side who not only must win but must keep an eye on events elsewhere. That push and pull may well promote sufficient gaps in their framework.
Prediction: Italy 1-1 Ireland
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